2014美國暑假檔十大賣座電影預測 - 電影

Summer 2014 Forecast
http://bit.ly/1kaLQrY

by Ray Subers

前言：Box Office Mojo網站的負責人Ray Subers，早在4月就在網站貼文評析今年暑假
檔期的重要潛在賣座電影，大體來說，聘請一線名導演+演員的高成本經典續集/重拍，
不但在台灣是賣座靈丹，就連在美國影評本身的看好程度也是明顯有優勢的，因為在
作者預測的美國賣座前十名中，有高達六部是近年賣座電影的續集，甚至於只有一部是
不翻拍過往經典的原創劇本。

不過，在這樣明顯由續集主導的票房法則中，從Subers的預測，還是可以看出美國市場
還是有兩種片型，是比較不容易在台灣造成比照盛況的
A. 成人導向，即使主角不是俊男美女也沒關係的的限制級喜劇
B. 家庭導向的普級奇幻冒險故事，不管是真人還是動畫

這篇預測文雖然因為發文時間的緣故，會跟一些已經上映電影的實際狀況有一定落差，
但我覺得Subers的發文角度，還是有抓到電影的大方向，整體而言仍然具有參考價值，
所以就在這個端午假期把他看好賣座前十名的分析文，翻譯成中文並且發表在版上給
大家分享並作參考

以下就是Ray Subers看好今年美國暑假檔的十大賣座電影..

註：電影片名後的第二行是美國上映日期，第三行分別是此片在美國與海外的預測票房

1.馴龍高手2 How to Train Your Dragon 2
June 13
Domestic: $325 million, Foreign: $505 million

The first How to Train Your Dragon earned $217.6 million in early 2010, and
remains one of the most popular animated movies in recent memory (it ranks in
the all-time Top 250 on IMDb).

馴龍高手在2010的春季檔上映時，在美國累積了2.176億美金的票房，而馴龍至今依舊是
近年夢工廠最受歡迎的動畫片，因為它已經在IMDB最高評分的250部電影中佔有一席之地
。

In a Summer lacking any serious animated competition, it's a foregone
conclusion that How to Train Your Dragon 2 will improve upon its predecessor.
If it follows the same pattern as Despicable Me 2, it will earn $320 million
at the domestic box office.

在今年暑假沒有其他重要動畫片競爭的優勢下，可以確定馴龍2將會開出比上集還要高的
票房。假如跟去年的「神偷奶爸2」拿來對照並推估，馴龍2光是在美國就可以賣出3.2億
的票房。

2. X戰警：未來昔日 X-Men: Days of Future Past
May 23
Domestic: $290 million, Foreign: $470 million

The X-Men franchise is coming off its two lowest-grossing outings at the
domestic box office (X-Men: First Class and The Wolverine). In an effort to
reinvigorate the series, Days of Future Past brings back many members of the
original cast, and matches Wolverine up with the First Class group (some of
whom have seen their star power rise substantially in the past three years).

X戰警這個超級英雄品牌已經連續兩部電影在美國票房寫下新低點(第一戰與武士之戰)，
為了讓這個系列重新締造顛峰，未來昔日特地找回原先三部曲的重要人氣角色，加上
金剛狼與第一戰的陣容一起同台演出。事實上，有不少在第一戰表現不錯的演員，已經
在過去三年來逐步展現他們的明星架勢，這對電影的前途當然有一定的加分作用。

Early trailers sold the high-stakes story, while recent material has
positioned it as a fun, exciting team-up movie akin to The Avengers. Adjusted
for inflation, the third X-Men movie earned the equivalent of $285 million;
with the addition of 3D ticket pricing, that's a reasonable expectation for
Days of Future Past.

至於宣傳方面，未來昔日最初的預告像是在行銷情節充滿驚險橋段的故事，但最近片商
已經將電影定調成一部跟「復仇者聯盟」一樣有趣且刺激的超級英雄合作電影。經過
通貨膨脹的幣值調整後，X戰警同樣陣容豪華的「最後戰役」，其票房等同於現今的2.
85億美金，再加上3D版本帶來的較高票價，未來昔日能衝到類似的數字應該不是過分的
預測。

3. 變形金剛4：絕跡重生 Transformers: Age of Extinction
June 27
Domestic: $285 million, Foreign: $750 million

The first three Transformers movies all earned over $300 million at the
domestic box office, and the last one reached $1.1 billion worldwide. The
fourth installment subs out Shia LaBeouf for Mark Wahlberg, though that might
not be enough to make up for the fact that the last two movies aren't held in
high esteem (fool me once… etc.).

變形金剛的前三集在美國都有進帳3億美金，三年前的第三集甚至成為全球票房破十億
美金的超人氣大片。今年絕跡重生的最大變化，就是讓觀眾緣較討喜的馬克華柏格，
取代近年負面新聞偏多的席亞李必夫成為男主角，但這舉動未必能讓連續兩次對變形
金剛失望的人，重新找回對此系列的熱情。

A decrease on par with the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean would put Age of
Extinction at $275 million; the movie should mostly make up for this
overseas, where it's sure to be a huge hit.

假如用2011年「神鬼奇航4：幽靈海」的衰退比率推估，絕跡重生的美國票房恐怕會跌
破3億，但變形4在海外繼續熱賣並在全球票房榜上稱冠應非問題。
(PS：本文作者認為變形金剛4會是今年暑假唯一票房破十億美金的電影)

4. 猩球崛起：黎明的進擊 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
July 11
Domestic: $240 million, Foreign: $460 million

In 2011, Rise of the Planet of the Apes became a surprise late-Summer hit
with $176.8 million. The sequel brings back Andy Serkis as Caesar, and takes
the story in an exciting new direction (apes vs. humans in a post-apocalyptic
wasteland).

2011暑假後段才上映的「猩球崛起」，有點意外地在當年開出比想像中更好的票房，如今
續集不僅把巧妙飾演猩王凱薩的安迪賽奇斯帶回來重做馮婦，製作劇組也把故事帶到更
吸引人的新方向(猩族與人類在世界末日後的廢棄地近乎戰爭的對立)。

With goodwill from the first installment and a strong mid-July release date,
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should top its predecessor's domestic gross.
Thanks to the addition of 3D, look for big gains overseas as well.

在猩球崛起的好口碑，與更能吸金的七月中檔期兩項利多加持下，「黎明的進擊」的票房
應該可以輕鬆超越上集。而3D版本的加持，更能讓猩2在海外有進一步的斬獲。

5. 哥吉拉 Godzilla
May 16
Domestic: $230 million, Foreign: $440 million

The bad taste from 1998's Godzilla movie has been washed away by strong
trailers that show off the human impact of large-scale destruction while only
providing brief glimpses of the monster. This calls to mind the marketing
strategy for last year's World War Z, which kept its zombies obscured for the
most part.

1998年同樣英文片名但口碑不如預期的「酷斯拉」對觀眾造成的陰影，應該已經被新版
強勢的預告影片徹底洗掉了，因為這些影片巧妙展現了大規模破壞對人類造成的衝擊，
卻只讓怪獸本身短暫地驚鴻一瞥。這多少讓人想起去年同樣有災難片元素的「末日之戰
」，刻意讓殭屍在預告大部分時間影像模糊的異曲同工保密宣傳手法。

While Godzilla doesn't have Brad Pitt, the giant lizard should make up for
that. Adjusting for inflation, the 1998 movie earned around $230 million,
which is a fair target for this movie. Also, look for huge international
returns.

哥吉拉儘管沒有布萊德彼特這樣喊水會結凍的巨星，但光是這隻巨獸本身，就可以彌補
這個小弱點。如果用通貨膨脹來換算，酷斯拉在1998的美國票房可以換算成2.3億美金，
對於新版本算是合理的目標。當然，哥吉拉的海外票房不難想像應該會很可觀。

6. 蜘蛛人驚奇再起：電光之戰 The Amazing Spider-Man 2
May 2
Domestic: $225 million. Foreign: $480 million

Five years after the Sam Raimi/Tobey Maguire Spider-Man franchise ended, Sony
rebooted the popular superhero in 2012's The Amazing Spider-Man. The movie
was the lowest-grossing entry yet at the domestic box office ($262 million),
but was still a strong player worldwide.

在導演山姆雷米與陶比麥奎爾相繼結束他們的蜘蛛人生涯後，索尼終於在2012年以「
蜘蛛人驚奇再起」的名義，讓全新陣容將這位人氣英雄回歸影壇。然而，驚奇再起卻
創下蜘蛛人系列首次在美國無法突破三億的殘念記錄，不過整體而言驚奇再起的全球
票房仍算是一次成功。

Less than two years later, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has the webcrawler facing
an assortment of villains including Electro and the Green Goblin in what's
billed as his "greatest battle" yet. It also returns Spidey to the prime
first weekend of May, which is where the franchise set opening weekend box
office records twice (in 2002 and 2007).

不到兩年後，安德魯加非爾德飾演的新版蜘蛛人又要用他的蜘蛛手對抗全新品種的反派，
像是懷才不遇的電光人與個性中二的綠惡魔，片商甚至用「蜘蛛人史上最偉大的戰役」來
形容電光之戰。此外，蜘蛛人也回歸了五月第一週的黃金檔期，因為這正是讓蜘蛛人分別
在2002與2007二度締造美國票房首映記錄的幸運時刻。

Still, as the fifth movie in 12 years, it can't help but feel a bit redundant.
With franchise fatigue in full effect, another decrease in domestic box office
is likely.

然而，12年來5部蜘蛛人電影，不可避免會對觀眾造成被餵食太多的反胃感，這樣的疲乏
效應恐怕會讓蜘蛛人在美國的票房再創新低。

7. 星際異攻隊 Guardians of the Galaxy
August 1
Domestic: $180 million, Foreign: $250 million

This is the first original Marvel Cinematic Universe movie since Captain
America: The First Avenger in 2011, and is probably the riskiest of any of
the MCU movies so far. The eclectic band of characters has no cultural cache
yet, and there's no clear tie-in with the rest of the universe. The
attention-grabbing first trailer directly addressed this issue by spending
an inordinate amount of time introducing each member, including a gun-toting
raccoon and a human man who goes by Star Lord (played by Chris Pratt).

星際異攻隊(簡稱GOG)是漫威製片部繼2011年的美國隊長後，第一部非續集/延伸外傳的
角色起源電影，卻也有可能是漫威自製電影中風險最高的。因為這群風格不一致的主角
群不但還無法讓多數觀眾建立起文化上的記憶，跟漫威的其他電影更是沒有明確的連結
。這問題導致本片的第一隻預告片即使吸引力夠強，也花了比常理上還要長的時間介紹
組織的每個成員，如男星布萊德利庫柏配音的帶槍浣熊，以及一名後來變成此漫畫經典
角色「星爵」的捲髮男(此角由女諧星安娜費莉絲老公克里斯普萊特飾演)

There's a possibility that Guardians winds up being this Summer's Pacific Rim
—the online hype outweighing general interest—though we're betting it winds
up on par with the original Thor

GOG可能會有類似去年環太平洋的經歷，也就是網路聲勢爆高但一般觀眾反應平平的尷尬
局面。不過，作者預測GOG最終的成績還是可以與「雷神索爾」第一集平起平坐。

8.黑魔女：沈睡魔咒 Maleficent
May 30
Domestic: $150 million, Foreign: $300 million

Based on Disney's animated classic Sleeping Beauty, Maleficent is the latest
live-action fantasy from the studio that found success with similar movies
Alice in Wonderland and (to a lesser extent) Oz The Great and Powerful. A
better comparison here may be 2012 fantasy Snow White and the Huntsman,
which opened on the same weekend and also focused its marketing on an iconic
villain (in this case, its Angelina Jolie's Maleficent).

根據經典自家動畫「睡美人」改編的黑魔女，是迪士尼繼「魔境夢遊」與「奧茲大帝」
獲得成功後，又一次把經典奇幻童話改拍成大卡司真人版(儘管奧茲的熱門程度明顯沒
有魔境高)。不過，黑魔女最好的比較範本，應該是此片製作人Joe Roth前年與環球合
作的「公主與狩獵者」，不僅是因為兩片的上映檔期相近(五月底靠近六月初)，也跟
這兩部片在宣傳時更把焦點著重在反派上有關(公片莎莉賽隆飾演的皇后 VS 安潔莉娜
裘莉這次飾演的黑魔女)。

That movie earned $155.3 million at the domestic box office; with a family-
friendly "PG" rating, Maleficent has a good chance of matching that.

公主與狩獵者最後在美國進帳了1.553億的票房，而黑魔女這次有了對家庭族群更友善的
PG分級，要配上製片前作成績的機會不低。

9. 惡鄰纏身 Neighbors
May 9
Domestic: $140 million, Foreign: $65 million

Seth Rogen is coming off one of his biggest hits yet in This is the End, and
that well-received comedy has been highlighted in Neighbors marketing. More
importantly, though, Neighbors has a great comedic set-up that's front-and-
center in all of Universal's advertising ("Family Vs. Frat").

賽斯羅根去年自導自編自演的大卡司自我惡搞喜劇「大明星世界末日」，不但讓他生涯
又多了一部全美票房破億電影，也讓他的新作「惡鄰纏身」增加了行銷上的利多。更
重要的是：惡鄰纏身電影本身即擁有良好的故事設定「成年家長與大學兄弟會的對立
關係」，讓環球影業有了明確的行銷的重點。

It's also well-positioned as the first R-rated comedy in a Summer that's full
of them. Finally, positive early reviews suggest the kind of word-of-mouth
that can take a comedy hit to the next level.

「惡」片成為暑假檔眾多限制級喜劇中第一部上映的，也是電影行情的一大優勢。最後，
「惡」片在正式上映前頗為正面的試映結果，也暗示電影本身可以靠著堅強的口碑效應，
締造新的喜劇片票房里程碑。

10. 龍虎少年隊2 22 Jump Street
June 13
Domestic: $135 million, Foreign: $75 million

Like any other kind of sequel, comedy follow-ups are a mixed bag: for every
Meet the Fockers (+68%), there's a Sex and the City 2 (-38%). 22 Jump Street
will likely wind up somewhere in the middle. The first movie is well-liked,
and previews have enough strong gags to suggest that this one delivers as
well.

喜劇片的續集跟其他系列電影一樣票房有好有壞，既有2004年「門當父不對之親家路窄」
比上集多出68%的案例，也有2010「慾望城市2」下跌近四成的狗尾續貂。而校園喜劇龍虎
少年隊的續集看來應該會介於兩者之間。龍虎1在影評與影迷之間都相當受歡迎，而預告
片表現出的笑梗集錦也是一個好兆頭。

Unfortunately, it also opens in the more-competitive Summer season, and comes
on the heels of three original May comedies that should all do solid business
. Ultimately, expect 22 Jump Street to wind up in the same range as the
original.

但不幸的是，龍虎2的檔期剛好擺在更為競爭的暑假檔，而且比他先上映的三部喜劇應該
也會開出不差的票房，並反過來壓縮到龍虎2。儘管形勢比第一集還要嚴峻，但龍虎2的
票房應該還是可以跟上集一樣維持相同水平。

譯按：原文指出的三部喜劇，應該是指賽斯羅根的「惡鄰纏身」、亞當山德勒的「當我們
混在一起」與賽斯麥克法藍的「百萬種硬的方式」，但除了惡鄰纏身外的其他兩部喜劇，
由於口碑欠佳幾乎確定在美國無法破億。

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以下補充作者預測的第11-20名，包括他們在美國與海外的可能成績，
不過由於時間與文化緣故，我就不貼上原文與翻譯了，
而且，這當中有些美式喜劇幾乎確定無法達標了..

11.忍者龜：變種世代 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Domestic: $130 million, Foreign: $255 million

12.百萬種硬的方式 A Million Ways to Die in the West
Domestic: $125 million, Foreign: $170 million(美國票房幾乎確定跳票)

13.生命中的美好缺憾 The Fault in our Stars(分歧者女主角新片)
Domestic: $120 million, Foreign: $55 million

14.惡魔刑事錄 Deliver Us From Evil(艾瑞克班納新片)
Domestic: $115 million, Foreign: $80 million

15.飛機總動員：打火英雄 Planes: Fire and Rescue
Domestic: $110 million, Foreign:$140 million

16.海克力士 Hercules(巨石強森新片)
Domestic: $105 million, Foreign: $230 million

17.譚美 Tammy(竊資達人女主角新片)
Domestic: $105 million, Foreign: $45 million

18.當我們混在一起 Blended
Domestic: $100 million, Foreign: $95 million(美國票房幾乎確定跳票)

19.激樂人心Get On Up(傳奇歌星詹姆斯布朗傳記電影，姊妹導演新片)
Domestic:$95 million, Foreign: $50 million

20.明日邊界
Domestic: $90 million, Foreign: $220 million

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