2015北美暑假檔，15部最賣座電影預測 - 電影

Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions
http://fw.to/AGvxlJT

原文作者：Gregory Ellwood，HitFiX網站記者兼影評

前言：相對於去年氣氛詭譎且最後出人意表的暑期市場(當年不少影評分別預測變形金剛4
或馴龍高手2有機會成為美國暑假最賣座的電影，最後稱冠的卻是事前少有人料到的科幻
動作喜劇星際異攻隊)，今年暑假最賣座(無論美國還是全球市場)的電影其實並不難猜，
因為美國各大電影新聞網站無論票房預測怎麼寫，都不約而同的把同一部電影放在第一
名。甚至於，多數影評在寫到預測榜的第二到五名時，列出的電影也是大同小異的(只有
在排名作略微調整而已)

不過美國網站對於今年暑期電影的預測還是有不小的可看性，從這個榜單中，眼尖的影
迷也可以從榜單中延伸觀察到幾個有趣議題，比方說
‧哪些台灣宣傳還沒有積極啟動的電影可能會成為黑馬熱賣片？
‧哪些高成本製作就算積極宣傳，也早就被各方影評看衰賣座程度？

原本我去年找預測文的來源–也就是知名票房即時報導網站「Box Office Mojo」，由於
主筆Ray Subers被派拉蒙發行部門挖腳，因此他們也無法推出這個應該有不少人期待的
專題報導，不過票房預測外電其實並不難找，最後我找到的是HitFix網站，一方面是此
網站僅管有將排版將文字擠在一團的缺點，但只要拆開來閱讀其實要理解意思不會太難
，二方面我對這家網站也算是有一定的好感(他是刊登周六夜現場的播後影評文的影視網
站中，少數會對所有橋段做詳盡評析的)；三方面HitFix也是這些有發預測網站中，選片
數量比較多的。以下就是HitFix網站對於今年暑假檔的預測分析排名文

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1.復仇者聯盟：奧創紀元 Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1
Prediction: $550 million
Upside: Yes
Biggest Competition: Itself

‧有無機會超過預測：有(此文原作者發表外電原文的時間是四月底)
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：只有它自己

Why: When a sequel to the third highest grossing film of all-time hits
theaters its something of an event. In the three years since the first
"Avengers" debuted Marvel Studios' films have only made more and more money
at the box office. The Marvel brand is incredibly popular and the "Avengers"
franchise is the jewel in their crown.

當影史第三賣座電影的續集要在電影院強勢上映時，你不得不用「一場重大事件」去形
容這件事。自從復仇者聯盟在2012上映並引起不小話題後，漫威旗下的每部電影都能在
票房市場上大撈一筆，並讓這家公司成為不可思議受歡迎的人氣品牌。而他們寶藏中最
珍貴的珠寶，當然就是復仇者聯盟了！

Not surprisingly, "Age of Ultron" may actually break the original's $207
million opening weekend, the no. 1 opening of all time. Let's put that into
perspective for a moment. Do you know what no. 2 is? "Iron Man 3." It opened
a year later and still took in over $30 million less. No. 3? The last "Harry
Potter" which opened six months earlier and took in almost $40 million less.
And we're just talking about opening weekends here.

不意外地，奧創紀元上映之前，就已經被不少專家預測可望打破自己三年前自己創下的
美國週末首映記錄。讓我們從這個觀點上一下歷史課好了，你知道奧創上映前的首映
亞軍是哪部電影嗎？答案是復盟1後隔年上映的鋼鐵人3，但他的首映比復盟1少了三千
萬美金。季軍？比復盟早一年的哈利波特最後一集，但他跟復盟1更有著四千萬的差距
。而我們還只是在討論「首映票房」喔！

譯註：奧創紀元在美國首映週末的票房是1.9億美金，成績比其他電影高，但仍落後給
第一集

At a minimum, even if "Age of Ultron" has a typical theatrical multiple its
overall gross is looking at somewhere near $500 million. Any other result
would simply be shocking.

即使奧創紀元這次因為不少因素導致在美國的票房無法超越前集，但他的累積票房還是
可以在五億美金附近遊走。換句話說，任何遠離這範圍的票房成績都會是讓人驚訝的！

譯註：奧創紀元上映後由於各項票房指標都不如第一集，影評確定此片已經與美國本土
五億美金絕緣，4.6億應是此片在美國的成績極限

2. 小小兵 Minions
Release Date: July 10
Prediction: $310 million
Upside: Absolutely
Biggest Competition: None really

‧有無機會超過預測：絕對有
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：跟第一名一樣－目前看來也沒有

Why: The first two "Despicable Me" movies earned $251 and $368 million in the
U.S. respectively. More importantly? Gru, the series' main character, isn't
the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about those blockbuster,
it's those adorable, little minions.

分析：神偷奶爸系列在美國的票房不僅都超過兩億美金，第二集甚至比第一集多出了
1億。更重要的是：此系列的第一主角奶爸格魯，並不是影迷討論這個人氣動畫喜劇
系列時，第一個想到的人物－而是那些可愛的小小兵。

The Illumination Animation creations have become global icons over the past
five years. The characters are so popular they already have 28.6 million
Facebook likes…and the movie hasn't even hit theaters yet. The question
isn't whether "Minions" will be massive, but could it make more than even
"Despicable Me 2"?

這個由環球影業與Illumination動畫共同創造的虛擬族群，在這五年間已經變成了一個
全球化的經典圖騰，他們甚至夯到官方臉書頁面在電影正式上映前，就已經累積將近
三千萬個影迷按讚追蹤。現在會讓影迷與作者關心的問題，已經不是「帶有前傳性質的
小小兵會不會大賣」，而是「他的票房會不會超越神偷奶爸2」。

3.侏儸紀世界 Jurassic World
Release Date: June 12
Prediction: $300 million
Upside: Yes
Biggest Competition: "Inside Out"

‧有無機會超過預測：有
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：皮克斯動畫新片「腦筋急轉彎」

Why: If a certain "Avengers" movie weren't opening this summer you could
argue this long awaited sequel would be the easy no. 1 for the season.

分析：假如復仇者聯盟續集沒有在今年暑假檔上映，應該會有不少人預測這部被等待許
久的續集，會輕鬆登上今年暑假檔一哥的寶座吧！

"Jurassic World's" first trailer was the no. 4 most watched preview of 2014
behind "Avengers: Age of Ultron," "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force
Awakens" and "Fifty Shades of Grey." It had over 65 million views and was
released on Nov. 25 and had over 65 million views in less than four weeks.

因為「侏儸紀世界」是去年點閱率第四高的電影預告片，僅次於「奧創紀元」、年底才
要上映的「星際大戰七部曲：原力覺醒」，以及已經在情人節上映的「格雷的五十道陰
影」。侏儸紀世界儘管去年感恩節前夕才公布第一隻預告片，但在短短的四周以內，點
閱量已經超越了6千5百萬次。

Like "Star Wars," there are now multiple generations of moviegoers who have
been waiting patiently to see dinosaurs walk the earth once more. Throw in
"Guardians" superstar Chris Pratt and, well, you've got a major blockbuster
on your hands.

就跟星際大戰一樣，隨著先前只能看DVD與電視重播的跨世代影迷倍數級的成長，他們已
經長久且有耐性地想要再看到恐龍們在現在的地球上行走。加上去年以「星際異攻隊」
成名男星克里斯普萊特的加入，不難想像片商手中已經有一個可以在票房市場立於不敗
之地的籌碼！

4.腦筋急轉彎 Inside Out
Release Date: June 19
Prediction: $265 million
Upside: Yes, although Pixar movies usually top out in this range
Biggest Competition: "Max," "Minions"

‧有無機會超過預測：有，儘管皮克斯大部分的電影都能超越這個範圍
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：三周後上檔的小小兵

Why: Pixar's first completely original tale since 2012's "Brave" is one of
the most anticipated films of the year. Walt Disney Studios is so pleased
with it they are debuting it at the 2015 Cannes Film Festival over a month
before release.

分析：腦筋急轉彎不僅是皮克斯繼「勇敢傳說」後第一部原創動畫，也是今年最被影迷
期待的電影之一。迪士尼高層看完此片試片後，甚至滿意到決定在美國正式上映一個月
前，就在素來以嚴苛聞名的坎城影展作全球首映。

We're not sure it will reach the heights of 2009's Oscar-winner "Up," but
we'd be shocked if world of mouth didn't propel its take close to "Monsters
University's" $268 million total in 2013.

我們是無法確定腦筋急轉彎會不會有六年前「天外奇蹟」那樣口碑票房都在頂標的成就
，但假如口碑效應讓腦片無法在美國本土賣出接近兩年前「怪獸大學」2.68億美金的成
績，我們會感到相當驚訝。

The biggest concern? How much can "Inside" pocket before "Minions" erupts
three weeks later?

對此片最大的疑慮？那就是：它能在小小兵三周後強勢入侵影廳之前賺進多少錢？

5. 不可能的任務5：失控國度 Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation
Release Date: July 31
Prediction: $200 million
Upside: Yes, if it has good word of mouth it could outperform its predecessor
Biggest Competition: "Vacation," "Fantastic Four"

‧有無機會超過預測：有，只要有好口碑，MI系列又會締造票房新高
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：同天上映無厘頭限制級冒險喜劇「全家玩到趴」、下周上檔的
漫畫改編科幻動作片「驚奇四超人」新版

Why: Brad Bird reenergized this franchise with "Ghost Protocol" and now Tom
Cruise and longtime collaborator Christopher McQuarrie are bringing a Bond
feel back to the series. Moviegoers are already buzzing about Cruise's stunt
on the wing of a military plane as it takes off (already one of the most
iconic shots of the year).

「明日世界」導演布萊德伯德靠著四年前的「鬼影行動」，為「不可能的任務」系列注
入了新的生命力。這次，與湯姆克魯斯長期合作的克里斯多夫麥奎利，應該也能將007
的感覺帶到失控國度中。不少看過失控國度預告的影迷，已經在他們的網站熱烈討論阿
湯哥在片中做出爬到正在起飛軍用機側翼的驚險場面。想當然，上述鏡頭也早就被公認
是今年最經典的橋段之一！

譯註：McQuarrie與阿湯哥合作的代表作，包括二戰背景動作片「行動代號華爾奇利亞」
、較小品偵探警匪片「神隱任務」，以及去年上映的科幻戰爭動作片「明日邊界」，其
中McQuarrie另外還在神隱任務與失控國度兼任導演

In fact, Paramount was so bullish on "Rogue Nation" it moved it from Christmas
to July.* After viewing extended scenes with the nation's theater owners at
CinemaCon this past week, so are we.

事實上，派拉蒙對於失控國度是如此的看好，所以他們不惜把檔期從年底聖誕檔，提前
到七月下旬。在全美戲院業者都會參加的年度盛事「CinemaCon」看過片商提供的額外
片段後，我們也跟片商一樣有信心！

*Yeah, yeah, yeah, so maybe they wanted to get out of the way of "Star Wars:
Episode VII - The Force Awakens" too.

原文註解補充：雖然我知道派拉蒙提前檔期，也有可能是為了閃避一定大賣的「星際大
戰：原力覺醒」啦！

6. 瘋狂麥斯：憤怒道 Mad Max: Fury Road
Release Date: May 15
Prediction: $180 million
Upside: Probably not
Biggest Competition: "Avengers: Age of Ultron," "San Andreas," "Poltergeist"

‧有無機會超過預測：可能沒有
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：上映達兩周的奧創紀元、兩週後上檔的災難動作片「加州大地
震」與隔周上檔的靈異驚悚片「鬼哭神嚎：惡靈15」

Why: George Miller's revisiting of the Mad Max universe has been high on the
list for most movie fans since the first footage debut at Comic-Con last
July. Event though it's technically part of a franchise, "Fury Road" imagery
and concept plays almost like an original film. The teaser trailer and full
trailer are two of the most watched previews online over the past year.

瘋狂麥斯自從在去年七月在聖地牙哥動漫展公布初剪片段後，便成為不少影迷高度期待
的目標。儘管技術上而言是澳洲名導喬治米勒重啟這個危險世界的最新續集，但憤怒道
現階段公布的視覺印象與劇情大綱，幾乎都讓人感覺是一部全新的電影。此片的第一支
(先行板)與第二支(完整版)預告片，在去年網路上的觀賞量都是名列前茅的。

It may be dark and it may be violent, but it also looks like a smash.

瘋狂麥斯本身的黑暗與暴力元素可能是一個影響票房表現的隱憂，但這並不會阻止它成
為一部大殺四方的賣座片。

7.蟻人Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17
Prediction: $175 million
Upside: Yes, Marvel Studios continues to surprise
Biggest Competition: "Trainwreck"

‧有無機會超過預測：有，畢竟漫威就如同字面上能持續帶來驚奇
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：限制級都會愛情喜劇「火車出軌」(暫譯)，這是好孕臨門喜劇
名導的新片

Why: Here's the funny thing about Warner Bros. moving Hugh Jackman's "Pan"
to October. The new release date provided a clear runway for Marvel Studios
to have another big hit with "Ant-Man" by taking out its biggest competition.

華納兄弟將澳洲明星休傑克曼主演童話改編冒險喜劇「潘恩：航向夢幻島」的檔期延後
到10月後，發生了一件與蟻人有關且有趣的事－這反而提供給競爭對手漫威一個可以讓
旗下新片在暑假中後段脫穎而出的機會。

Of course, there are some issues. Most moviegoers don't know about the
controversy over Edgar Wright's departure as director, so that really won't
hurt it.

當然，蟻人本身的隱憂其實不少。首先，本片其實更換過導演，但大部分人都不大清楚
英國導演Edgar Wright加入蟻人劇組後與漫威的種種衝突甚至因而退出導演職務的相關
八卦，所以這點的傷害其實不算大。

You can argue, however, that Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas do not equal the
star power of Marvel's "Guardians" crew Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana and Bradley
Cooper as a talking Rocket Raccoon.

然而，有人可能會擔心保羅路德與麥克道格拉斯這對老少搭檔的明星魅力，似乎連「星
際異攻隊」都比不上。星異除了可搞笑可秀肌肉的克里斯普萊特、驃悍黑美人柔伊莎達
娜外，還有布萊德利庫柏幫會說話的浣熊配音呢！

Still, it will be the first superhero movie since "Age of Ultron" debuted two
months prior and remember our earlier point when discussing "Fantastic Four"
about the power of Marvel brand? 'Nuff said.

不過，蟻人終究是奧創紀元上映兩個月後，今年暑假檔第一部超級英雄電影，加上作者
認為就連爭議更多的「驚奇四超人」重啟版，都可以靠著漫威品牌的力量在北美破億－
光這個論點應該就可以破除不少鄉民的疑慮了！

譯注：「'Nuff said」是enough said的口語式簡寫，是美國一些人想終止議題討論時會
講出的口語

8.熊麻吉2 Ted 2
Release Date: June 26
Prediction: $165 million
Upside: Maybe
Biggest Competition: "Magic Mike XXL"

‧有無機會超過預測：也許可以
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：下周上檔且同樣有一線男星坐鎮的限制級喜劇「舞力麥克：尺
度極限」

Why: The first "Ted" was a major surprise at the box office taking in $233.4
million domestically. The fan bases of director and Ted voice Seth
MacFarlane and star Mark Wahlberg fueled that movie to a $54.4 million
opening.

三年前暑假檔上映的熊麻吉，是影評公認當年的一大賣座驚喜。由導演賽斯麥克法蘭與
馬克華伯格帶來的影迷基礎，不僅讓熊麻吉在美國上映首三天就累積超過五千萬美金的
首映票房，累積總額更是高達2.33億。

"Ted 2" will easily match or exceed that debut. That being said, we still
think the shine is slightly off this one (it may feel slightly too similar to
the first) and a lower overall take is in the cards.

無疑的，熊麻吉2的首周票房將會至少搭上乃至超越第一集的成績。然而換句話說，作者
認為金黃色賤嘴熊的光芒恐怕會在這次大幅衰退。畢竟從預告看來，不少笑梗都讓人感
覺與第一集太相似了！

9.加州大地震 San Andreas
Release Date: May 29
Prediction: $150 million
Upside: Yes
Biggest Competition: "Avengers: Age of Ultron," "Mad Max: Fury Road"

‧有無機會超過預測：有
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：上檔四週的奧創紀元、上檔兩週的瘋狂麥斯

Why: Dwayne Johnson is on a roll. He was one of the highlights of "Furious
7" - which just hit over $300 million in the U.S. - and is a legitimate star.
Even his terrible turn as "Hercules" still pulled in $72 million last summer.

只能用手氣正順，來形容這部片的男主角巨石強森了！他不僅是「玩命關頭7」這部全球
熱賣動作片(光美國本土就有三億美金)的重要功臣之一，也被業界認定是一名可靠的一
線巨星。即使是比較不吃香的古裝冒險片「海克力士」，在去年暑假在美國也有超過
七千萬的票房收入。

"San Andreas," on the other hand, has the end of the world goods that
audiences cannot turn away from. Throw in somewhat weak competition over
Memorial Day weekend ("Aloha," "Tomorrowland," "Age of Ultron" and "Fury
Road" entering their fourth and third weeks) and it could easily match the
lower end of any of Roland Emmerich's disaster flicks such as "The Day After
Tomorrow" or "2012."

加州大地震除了明星外，還有一個讓觀眾無法忽視的元素，那就是世界末日型的大災難
。加上陣亡戰士紀念日後一週的對手都相對較弱 (主打女性的愛情喜劇飛越情海、上映
前就被不少影評質疑潛力的明日世界。即使是被看好的奧創紀元與瘋狂麥斯也已經是
上映達三至四周的舊片)。加州大地震應該可以輕鬆搭上災難片達人羅蘭阿莫瑞奇幾部
代表作(明天過後、2012)的尾端。

10. 舞力麥克：尺度極限 Magic Mike XXL
Release Date: July 1
Prediction: $145 million
Upside: No, it could do slightly less
Biggest Competition: "Ted 2," "Terminator: Genysis"

‧有無機會超過預測：不能，而且最後成績恐怕還會遠低於這個預測
‧同檔期最大競爭對手： 熊麻吉2、科幻動作片「魔鬼終結者：創世契機」

Why: Much to "Terminator's" dismay, "XXL" should win the July 4th weekend.
The trailer is one of the most watched of the year and the film is shaping
up as the "50 Shades - go see it with your girlfriends" flick of the summer.

相較於魔鬼終結者最新一集的預告讓觀眾沮喪，舞力麥克應該有機會成為美國國慶檔的
票房霸主。不僅是因為預告觀賞量多到可以在榜上名列前茅，而且電影本身也在塑造一
種類似「格雷的50道陰影」的感覺－也就是：暑假檔要男生一定要陪女朋友一起去看的
電影。

"XXL" should open huge, but will ultimately deflate to make less than the
original.

舞力麥克首周應該可以衝出高額票房。只不過，其跌幅恐怕也會比第一集來得多，並因
而導致最終票房不如第一集。

11.麻辣賤諜 Spy
Release Date: June 5
Prediction: $130 million
Upside: No, this is pretty much where it will fall
Biggest Competition: "Entourage," "Aloha"

‧有無機會超過預測：無，此數值已經夠多
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：HBO話題影集延伸好萊塢生態喜劇「大明星小跟班」、布來德利
庫柏與艾瑪史東主演的浪漫喜劇「飛越情海」

Why: Melissa McCarthy's terrible "Tammy" was labeled a critical and box
office bomb last summer. It still earned $84.2 million in the U.S. and was
ultimately profitable for Warner Bros.

分析：梅莉莎麥卡西去年暑假推出的公路喜劇「譚美」，在評價與票房的表現都遠低於
預期。不過，譚美不僅在北美仍有超過八千萬美金的票房，對於出品的華納影業也仍是
能夠賺錢的電影。

"Spy" reunites McCarthy with Paul Feig, the director of "The Heat" and
"Bridesmaids," and many are saying "Spy" is their funniest flick yet. Having
seen it myself I have to admit it's pretty damn close.

「麻辣賤諜」是麥卡西與保羅費格繼「伴娘我最大」與「麻辣嬌鋒」後的第三度合作。
不少看過此片試片的影評，不約而同表示麻辣賤諜是這對雙人組合做過最好笑的電影。
而我(原文作者)親自看過之後，也不得不承認我的感覺與他們是相似的。

12. 驚奇四超人2015 Fantastic Four
Release Date: August 7
Prediction: $125 million
Upside: Doubtful
Biggest Competition: "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation"

‧有無機會超過預測：仍在懷疑中
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：上映一週的不可能的任務5

Why: For all the haters (and there are many), it's important to remember
two things. First, Fox's original "FF" movies were also the subject of
significant fan vitriol and both earned over $130 million domestic.

對所有對這部經典重啟帶有憎恨(而且為數不少)的人來說，有兩件事情是他們仍然要記
住的。
第一點：艾芭與克里斯伊凡加入的喜劇版「驚四」系列，其實也受到大量的影迷批評，
但這兩部驚四電影都在美國賣出超過1.3億美金的票房。

Second, you cannot discount the power of the Marvel brand. Marvel Studios
didn't produce this movie, but the lowest grossing "Marvel" film of the past
five years? Fox's dark thriller "The Wolverine" which still made $132.5
million. It's simply too hard to believe the return of the iconic supergroup
will fail to at least hit $125 million.

第二點：不要低估漫威的品牌力量。沒錯，漫威電影部門本身是沒有製作新版驚四，但
先問你一個問題－這五年間票房最低的漫威改編電影是哪一部？答案是：福斯旗下走陰
暗驚悚風格的「金鋼狼：武士之戰」，但他在美國本土的票房還是比1.3億還多。也因
此，原文作者並不相信這組經典超級英雄團隊再度回歸銀幕時，會出現連1.2億都達不
到的尷尬狀況。

13. 全家玩到趴 Vacation
Release Date: July 31
Prediction: $125 million
Upside: No, this is pretty much where it will fall
Biggest Competition: "Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation," "Masterminds"

‧有無機會超過預測：無，此數值已經夠多
‧同檔期最大競爭對手： 不可能的任務5、大鬍子諧星查克葛里芬納奇主演的犯罪喜劇
「Masterminds」

Why: Warner Bros. moved "Vacation" from October to the end of July because
they realized they had a film which could breakout with moviegoers.
"Vacation" now has the late summer comedy slot where Will Ferrell comedies
and WB's own "We're The Millers" have thrived over the past few years.

華納影業決定將原本十月才要上映的「全家玩到趴」提前到七月底，是因為他們發現這
部有續集傳承意味的公路冒險喜劇，可以在熱門檔期對觀眾有更有吸引力。全家玩到趴
的確令人想起了不少暑假末端上映的賣座喜劇，如威爾法洛的瘋狂喜劇系列，以及華納
自家兩年前同樣帶有公路旅行元素的「全家就是米家」。

The trailer will hit theaters soon, but when it played for the nation's
theater owners at CinemaCon this past week? It simply killed.

全家玩到趴的預告片不久前才透過戲院與網路散布的方式曝光，但作者可以先透露此片
上個月在美國戲院業者年度活動「CinemaCon」首播電影片段的狀況－實在太殺啦！

14.魔鬼終結者：創世契機 Terminator: Genysis"
Release Date: July 1
Prediction: $120 million
Upside: Yes
Biggest Competition: "Magic Mike XXL," "Ted 2"

‧有無機會超過預測：有
‧同檔期最大競爭對手：同天上映的舞力麥克2、上映一週的熊麻吉2

Why: This may seem low considering the July 4th frame, but "Genysis" has not
inspired much confidence to date. There is no movie this summer that has
spewed as much negative reaction in social media outside of "Fantastic Four."

分析：1.2億美金這個數字看起來對這部美國國慶應景強檔來說的確有點低，但創世契
機到現在都沒有辦法讓影迷產生足夠的信心。畢竟，除了驚奇四超人的重啟之外，
今年暑假檔大概也沒有其他電影能夠在網路社群媒體，讓鄉民們產生這麼多的負面反
應了吧！

The last installment, 2009's "Terminator: Salvation," earned a disappointing
$125 million and featured Christian Bale at the height of his popularity
following "The Dark Knight" the summer before. It also doesn't help that
"Magic Mike XXL" will be a monster during the same frame.

有很大的原因是因為六年前同樣打著魔鬼終結者名號的「未來救贖」，即使有前一年以
黑暗騎士身價大漲的克利斯汀貝爾加入，在美國的收入卻只有讓人失望的1.25億。當然
，查寧塔圖秀肌肉兼搞笑的「舞力麥克」有機會成為同檔期的票房怪獸，恐怕對創世契
機也不是什麼好消息。

That being said, "Terminator" is a legacy franchise and never bet against
Arnold Schwarzenegger reprising his most iconic role.

儘管有上述的利空因素，但魔鬼終結者終究是一個有相當影迷基礎的系列。也因此，千
萬不要低估阿諾再次飾演黑夾克機器人終結者這個經典角色的成績。

15. 世界大對戰 Pixels
Release Date: July 24
Prediction: $100 million
Upside: Yes
Biggest Competition: "Paper Towns"

‧有無機會超過預測：有
‧同檔最大競爭對手：愛情冒險喜劇「紙上城市」，此片是「生命中的美好缺憾」獲得
成功後，福斯影業再度改編原作者另一暢銷小說

Why: Adam Sandler hasn't had the best five years or so, but if his "Grown
Ups" movies have proved anything it's that kids still think he's funny.
Sandler has successfully transitioned his career into more family friendly
material and that will uniquely benefit "Pixels."

我們都知道亞當山德勒在這五年的電影表現並不是他演藝生涯最好的，但「亞當轉大人
」系列的成功，似乎可以證明一件事－美國的兒童們仍然認為他很有趣。山德勒已經
成功地把他的事業版圖轉向對家庭族群更友善的題材，這正是他為科幻動作新片「世界
大對戰」帶來的最大利多。

Director Chris Columbus knows who he is playing too having helmed "Home
Alone" and the first "Harry Potter." Throw in some intriguing special
effects, Peter Dinklage and Josh Gad (aka Olaf from "Frozen") and its hard
not to see this being the family flick for the end of the summer.

世界大對戰導演克里斯哥倫布先前的「小鬼當家」與「哈利波特」前兩集也都是全球吃
香的賣座普級電影，顯見他也是家庭導向喜劇的能手之一。再加上讓人讚嘆的特效，
以及近年幾位名氣竄升演員的加入－如影集權力遊戲性格侏儒男星彼得丁克萊傑與「
冰雪奇緣」飾演雪寶的諧星喬許蓋德，世界大對戰沒意外的話應該可以在暑假末端吸引
不少家庭買票。

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除了HitFix外，我也順道找其他人氣電影新聞網站的票房預測，給各位參考
‧SlashFilm： http://bit.ly/1BKvjiW
‧JoBlo： http://bit.ly/1Ic2iS8
‧EW.com： http://bit.ly/1EVdbTJ
‧Vulture： http://vult.re/1NR2dUC

個人翻譯後心得：
1.我個人是覺得HitFix把瘋狂麥斯估得有點高了，即使最終影片成果讓不少影評與觀眾
滿意，但就連原文作者都認為此片不同於其他電影的黑暗、暴力是隱憂了，更不用說
它本身在美國因為尺度分級造成的觀眾限制。相對來說，不少網站似乎也低估了歌喉讚
2的潛能

2.不過明日世界幾乎沒出現在各家媒體的預測賣座榜單上，似乎就不是意外了，這似乎
也顯示不少影評對於迪士尼針對此片的行銷策略不是很滿意

不管各位同不同意這家網站的預測，但我相信這篇文章對於不少人來說，應該也能帶來
看電影的一種樂趣吧！希望我未來有空還能翻譯其它有趣的電影外電！

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