誰會是今年第一家10億票房片廠？ - 電影

Which Studio Will Be First to $1 Billion This Year?
http://bit.ly/1jFuv4G

by Ray Subers

前言：知名票房分析網站Box Office Mojo的寫手Ray Subers，在四月底至五月初時，
寫了一些有關今年暑期電影市場的預測文章，其中有一篇更是直接將今年好萊塢六大
片場各自的菜單，作了一番深入淺出的分析。我個人認為此文章雖然有一些時間差，
但仍有一定的參考價值，因此還是將此文po上來給大家分享。

以下是Ray Subers在針對六大片場的態勢作逐家分析之前，第一大段的概要

1.今年的5月11日之後，好萊塢已經有三家片廠的年度票房收入來到5億美金(文後單位亦
同)，他們分別是迪士尼、華納與索尼。而福斯與環球的年營收也已經在五月下旬跨入這
個門檻

2.從2007之後，每年都會有至少一家片廠，其票房總收入在七月中旬超過十億美金，迪
士尼已經在2012&13連續兩年率先達標，而現在氣勢較弱的派拉蒙也曾經在2009風光過

3.當然，第一個達到年營收十億的片廠，必不代表可以繼續在年終成為霸主。這十年來
，率先十億與年終市佔率保持領先只有三次發生過，他們分別是2004的索尼、2007與
2011的派拉蒙

接下來是Ray Subers對好萊塢六大片場的逐家分析

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迪士尼 Disney
2014現階段收入 Year-to-Date:
$541 million(on May 13, 2014)
$571.7 million(on May 25, 2014)

2014暑假檔前最成功電影 Biggest Hits:
Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($245 million), Frozen ($137.4 million).

．美國隊長2(美國票房破2.5億)
．冰雪奇緣(美國票房破四億，有1.37億來自今年)

2014暑假檔重要電影 Upcoming Releases:
Million Dollar Arm (May 16), Maleficent (May 30), Planes: Fire and Rescue
(July 18), Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug. 1)

．少年Pi主角主演棒球劇情片「百萬金臂」
．裘莉主演奇幻冒險片「黑魔女：沈睡詛咒」
．動畫喜劇續集「飛機總動員2」
．漫威製作科幻動作片「星際異攻隊」

分析 Analysis:
So far this year, Disney is the highest-grossing studio with $541 million.
That's thanks in large part to Captain America, which accounts for over 45
percent of that revenue.

迪士尼在五月中旬此文截稿時，是當時美國收入最高的片廠，而這最大的功臣就是美國
隊長－其續集佔了迪士尼現階段電影票房收入的45%。

Disney's Summer schedule is lighter than usual, though. Million Dollar Arm
will do modest business—maybe $50 million or so. Maleficent is the type of
big-budget fantasy that can deliver huge numbers, though the marketing hasn't
really connected. A gross on par with Snow White and the Huntsman ($155.3
million) is probably the best-case scenario. In July, Planes: Fire and Rescue
could take advantage of a dearth of family fare and earn close to $100
million.

然而，迪士尼今年暑假檔的陣容，跟過往相比算是稍微薄弱。「百萬金臂」應該會成為
5千萬水準的中等賣座片。「黑魔女」理論上應該是能夠帶來高收益的大成本奇幻片，
但宣傳的效果似乎沒預期中好，最好的票房模版應該是此片製作人前年與環球合作的「
公主與狩獵者」。七月上映的「飛機總動員2」有機會靠著缺乏其他家庭導向電影的優
勢，把票房衝到一億附近。

If all of that works out, it would put Disney around $850 million without
Guardians of the Galaxy, which opens on August 1. That should do well enough
to push the studio over the $1 billion mark by the end of August.

假如以上三部片都能達到上述基準，迪士尼在「星際異攻隊」上映前，就能把今年票房
收入累積到8.5億，沒有太大意外的話，GOG的票房可望讓迪士尼在八月底把年收入推至
10億。

Odds: 15%

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索尼 Sony
2014現階段收入Year-to-Date:
$524 million(on May 13, 2014)
$577 million(on May 25, 2014)

2014暑假檔前最成功電影 Biggest Hits:
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($145.2 million), American Hustle($82.6 million),
The Monuments Men ($78 million), Heaven is for Real ($75.7 million).

．蜘蛛人驚奇再起2(目前美國票房1.8億)
．蠻天大布局(美國票房1.5億，有55%戲院收入來自今年)
．大卡司戰爭動作片「大尋寶家」(美國票房7800萬)
．基督主題劇情片「看見天堂」(美國票房破8千萬)

2014暑假檔重要電影 Upcoming Releases:
22 Jump Street (June 13), Think Like a Man Too (June 20),Deliver Us From Evil
(July 25), Sex Tape (July 25)

．校園臥底喜劇「龍虎少年隊2」
．黑人導向浪漫喜劇「男人行不行2」
．艾瑞克班納主演犯罪驚悚片「惡魔刑事錄」
．卡麥容迪亞主演限制級性導向喜劇「愛愛上雲端」

分析 Analysis:
Sony has had a good year so far, though that's due mostly to having eight
nationwide releases (more than any other studio). Their top title, The Amazing
Spider-Man 2, is poised to be the lowest-grossing Spider-Man yet, though it is
going to earn at least another $60 million before the end of its run. Faith-
based hit Heaven is for Real could also add another $30 million or so.

索尼今年為止的表現還算讓人滿意，不過這也是有八部大規模發行電影的累積效應 (比
其他片場還多)。他們的頭號強片「蜘蛛人驚奇再起2」將會創下蜘蛛人在美國的票房新
低，但應該還是可以勉強跨過兩億大關。以基督教徒作為號招的「看見天堂」則有機會
締造破億奇蹟。

Looking ahead, comedy sequels 22 Jump Street and Think Like a Man Too should
earn at least $200 million (their predecessors add up to $230 million). With
a very memorable trailer, Deliver Us From Evil could surprise in early July.
Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel are an appealing pair, though Sex Tape is a big
question mark right now. If one or more of these titles overperforms, Sony
should be at $1 billion by the end of Summer.

在索尼今年未來的電影方面：「龍虎少年隊2」與「男人行不行2」兩部喜劇續集沒意外
的話應該可以帶來總共兩億的票房(他們的第一集在美國累積票房有2.3億)。驚悚片「
惡魔刑事錄」靠著讓人印象深刻的預告片，有機會成為七月上旬的黑馬賣座片。卡麥容
迪亞與傑森席格固然是討喜的喜劇組合，但「愛愛上雲端」的票房趨勢仍然要打上問號
。不過，假如上述電影有任一部能開出比預期好的票房，索尼應該可以在暑假結束前進
入十億俱樂部。

Odds: 10%

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華納兄弟 Warner Bros.
2014現階段收入 Year-to-Date:
$516 million(on May 13, 2014)
$681.5 million(on May 25, 2014)

2014暑假檔前最成功電影 Biggest Hits:
The LEGO Movie ($253.7 million), 300: Rise of An Empire ($106.2 million).

樂高玩電影、三百壯士2(兩者均在美國破億，其中前者甚至賣破2.5億)

2014暑假檔重要電影 Upcoming Releases:
Godzilla (May 16), Blended (May 23), Edge of Tomorrow(June 6), Jersey Boys
(June 20), Tammy (July 2), Jupiter Ascending (July 18)

．災難動作片「哥吉拉」
．亞當山德勒與茱兒巴莉摩主演浪漫喜劇「當我們混在一起」
．湯姆克魯斯主演科幻動作片「明日邊界」
．克林伊斯威特音樂傳記片「紐澤西男孩」
．梅莉莎麥卡西主演公路喜劇「譚美」
．蜜拉庫妮絲主演科幻動作片「朱比特崛起」

分析 Analysis:
2014 has been the year of The LEGO Movie for Warner Bros.—the animated hit
accounts for nearly half of its earnings so far. 300: Rise of an Empire also
did fine business, though it's wrapping up with around half as much as its
predecessor. WB also has two major flops in Transcendence and Winter's Tale.

2014對華納來說可說是靠「樂高玩電影」拯救公司地位的一年－這部動畫喜劇在華納今年
第一季的收入佔了將近50%的比重。三百壯士續集的成績固然也不差，但畢竟在美國本土
跟第一集相比還是縮水了一半。「全面進化」與「冬季奇蹟」兩部大卡司電影的慘敗，對
華納的士氣多少有一定的衝擊。

Their Summer is packed with new releases—between now and the end of July,
they've got six titles coming out.Godzilla is the safest bet, and all signs
point to it delivering around $200 million. The rest of the lineup is tougher
to predict.

華納今年暑假的電影不但多，而且都不是續集大片。從五月到七月，他們有高達6部電影
要在電影院上映。而哥吉拉應該是當中行情最穩健的，所有的跡象都暗示這部怪獸災難
片光在美國就可以帶來兩億的收入。然而，華納其他的暑假電影就不是那麼容易預測了
。

Blended may be one of those rare Adam Sandler movies to fall short of $100
million; still, it should at least come close to Jack & Jill ($74.2 million).
The last original Tom Cruise movie to earn over $100 million was 2005's War
of the Worlds, and Edge of Tomorrow probably won't buck that trend. It's hard
to imagine Jersey Boys breaking out, and Tammy lacks the strong hook of
recent Melissa McCarthy's 2013 hits Identity Thief and The Heat. Jupiter
Ascending is a wild card, though as of now it looks more like John Carter
($73.1 million) than The Matrix ($171.5 million).

「當我們混在一起」恐怕會成為亞當山德勒少數無法在美國破億的電影，但起碼還是會有
靠近「龍鳳大雙胞」的數字。阿湯哥上次不依靠「不可能的任務」系列在美國破億的電影
是9年前的世界大戰，明日邊界大概也不會有這麼好的賣座行情。伊斯威特的新片「紐澤
西男孩」看來不容易有突破性的票房數字，「譚美」的吸引力也不如梅莉莎麥卡西去年兩
部代表作(竊資達人與麻辣交鋒)。「朱比特崛起」是一張潛力外卡，但現階段的走勢看來
更像「強卡特戰記」而非導演代表作「駭客任務」。

Still, if all of those perform in line with modest expectations, Warner Bros.
should be passing $1 billion by the end of July.

不過，上述的電影假如能在賣座走勢能有穩定的水平，華納應該還是能在七月底跨過十億
的關卡。

Odds: 25%

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環球 Universal
Year-to-Date:
$438 million(on May 13, 2014)
$502.9 million(on May 25, 2014)

2014暑假檔前最成功電影 Biggest Hits:
Ride Along ($134.2 million), Lone Survivor ($124.9 million), Non-Stop ($91.1
million)

．黑人搭檔喜劇「一路前行」(美國票房破億)
．紅翼行動(美國票房破億，馬克華柏格生涯第5高票房)
．空中救援(美國票房九千萬，連恩尼遜生涯第八高票房)

2014暑假檔重要電影 Upcoming Releases:
A Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30th), The Purge: Anarchy (July 18),
Get On Up (August 1)

．熊麻吉導演自導自演西部喜劇「百萬種硬的方式」
．屠殺驚悚片續集「國定殺戮日2」
．傳奇歌星詹姆斯布朗傳記電影「激樂人心」

分析 Analysis:
Universal has had a very good year at the domestic box office. Including
recent hit Neighbors, the studio has had four original, modestly-budgeted
movies open in first place. By the end of May, Universal should be near $550
million.

環球上半年在美國本土的成績相當優秀，假如把上映不久的喜劇「惡鄰纏身」算進去的
話，環球已經有4部中等成本的原創劇本電影，在美國拿到冠軍席位。而環球也有機會
在五月結束時，把今年的業績衝高到5.5億。

Unfortunately, the remainder of their Summer is weak; Universal was supposed
to have Fast & Furious 7 in July, but that had to be moved to next April
after star Paul Walker's unexpected passing. A Million Ways to Die in the
West could be a hit, but it won't come close to Ted levels. The Purge:
Anarchy may wind up on par with the first Purge ($64.5 million), though
that's far from a guarantee. The studio has a handful of movies opening in
August—Get on Up looks particularly strong—though it's unlikely it gets
anywhere near $1 billion before the end of September.

不幸的是，環球其他的暑假檔電影的吸引力似乎不強。環球本來打算要將必賣動作片「
玩命關頭7」擺在七月，但由於保羅沃克去年意外車禍的影響，片商被迫把檔期延後到
明年四月。「百萬種硬的方式」有機會成為賣座片，但顯然不會有導演前作「熊麻吉」
那樣的成就。「國定殺戮日2」的票房有可能跟第一集一樣高，但並沒有獲得業界影評
的一致保證。環球在八月會有不少電影當做暑假檔的壓軸片，而「激樂人心」看起來
是現階段行情最好的一部。不過，環球直到9月結束前都不可能把今年的票房收入靠近
10億美金的門檻。

Odds: 2%

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福斯 Fox
Year-to-Date:
$401 million(on May 13, 2014)
$517.2 million(on May 25, 2014)

2014暑假檔前最成功電影 Biggest Hits:
Rio 2 ($113.1 million), Mr. Peabody & Sherman ($108.9 million), The Other
Woman ($62.1 million), Son of God ($59.7 million)

．里約大冒險2與「皮巴迪先生與薛曼的時空冒險」兩部破億動畫喜劇
．浪漫喜劇「婦仇者聯盟」(美國票房破8千萬，卡麥容迪亞真人演出電影第十高)
．耶蘇傳記片「上帝之子」(美國票房近6千萬，基督相關電影第六高)

2014暑假檔重要電影 Upcoming Releases:
X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), The Fault in our Stars (June 6), How to
Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)

．大卡司科幻動作續集「X戰警：未來昔日」
．分歧者女主角新作「生命中的美好缺憾」
．動畫冒險續集「馴龍高手2」
．科幻災難續集「猩球崛起2」

分析Analysis:
20th Century Fox has had a fine year so far: Rio 2 and Mr. Peabody & Sherman
both wound up with over $100 million, while The Other Woman is exceeding most
expectations.

福斯今年的起步也算不錯，里約大冒險2與「皮巴迪先生」都有在美國破億，婦仇者聯盟
的成績也已經超乎業界的預期。

More importantly, the studio has the strongest Summer 2014 lineup. With
X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Fault in our Stars and How to Train Your
Dragon 2, they could dominate every weekend between Memorial Day and the end
of June. By early July, those three titles should add up to at least $500
million—around $450 million split between X-Men and Dragon, plus $50 million
for Fault—which would put Fox close to $1 billion. Add in Dawn of the Planet
of the Apes, and Fox should have no problem reaching that mark as early as
mid-July.

更重要的是，福斯今年暑假的片單可說是六大片場最堅強的，從五月底的陣亡將士紀念假
期(X戰警)到六月底(馴龍高手2)的三部片，都有機會成為美國票房的週末冠軍，而這三部
片也可望帶來5億的累積票房(X戰警與馴龍相加4.5億，分歧者女主角新片五千萬)，並將
福斯的年度票房收入推到靠近10億。再加上有一定水平的猩球崛起2，福斯在七月中旬達
到10億關卡幾乎不成問題。

Odds: 45%

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派拉蒙 Paramount
Year-to-Date:
$321 million(on May 25, 2014)

2014第一季最成功電影 Biggest Hits:
Noah ($99.9 million), The Wolf of Wall Street ($75.5 million)

．挪亞方舟(美國票房破億，羅素克洛生涯第七高票房)
．華爾街之狼(美國票房破億，有60%票房收入來自今年)

2014暑假檔重要電影Upcoming Releases:
Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27), Hercules (July 25), Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles (August 8)

．經典科幻動作必賣系列「變形金剛4：絕跡重生」
．巨石強森古裝動作片「海克力士」
．麥克貝監製超級英雄冒險喜劇「忍者龜：變種世代」

分析 Analysis:
Paramount has had a slow year so far. Noah's $100 million is a bit below
expectations, while Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Paranormal Activity: The
Marked Ones underperformed in January.

派拉蒙今年的起步有點緩慢。挪亞方舟雖然最終還是破億，但其花費的時間有點比想像中
久。「傑克萊恩：詭影任務」與「鬼入鏡：詛咒」更是在一月檔期出師不利的商業失敗之
作

Paramount doesn't enter the Summer fray until late June, though it goes
without saying that Transformers: Age of Extinction is going to be huge.
Their other releases, Hercules and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, are harder
to predict. Still, assuming Transformers reaches $300 million and the other
two combine for $250 million—both optimistic predictions—Paramount will
still be short of $1 billion going in to the Fall.

派拉蒙一直到六月才會加入今年暑假檔期的戰場。當然，變形金剛4不用說也會成為超賣
座大片，不過其他兩部片「海克力士」與忍者龜就有點不容易去預測了。然而，即使樂
觀預測變形4能順利突破三億，而其他兩部片也能一共帶來2.5億的票房收入，派拉蒙還
是沒辦法在入秋時把今年的業績擴張到10億。

Odds: 3%

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心得：派拉蒙好慘，假如不要把夢工廠動畫切割，公司的氣勢不知道會不會好一點？
另外，福斯低潮了不少年，如今終於有機會來個徹底的鹹魚翻身？

文章的最後順便附上Ray Subers預測今年暑假檔美國十大賣座電影，
有空的話我也會對這篇文章作更詳細的翻譯
http://bit.ly/1kaLQrY

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past
3. Transformers: Age of Extinction
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5. Godzilla
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
7. Guardians of the Galaxy
8. Maleficent
9. Neighbors
10.22 Jump Street

順道一提，Ray Subers預測今年暑假美國破兩億的電影會有6部

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