新月會三天破億嗎？ - 電影院

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Box-office preview: Can 'New Moon' cross $100 million?
新月會三天破億嗎？

by Nicole Sperling
Categories: Box Office, Film, Movie Biz, New Moon, Twilight

Preordained success is a tricky thing. Anything less than perfect and your
movie is considered a disappointment. Lucky for Summit Entertainment and the
filmmakers behind New Moon, teenage girls have got their back. At this point
only a natural catastrophe (and I’m not talking 2012) could derail the
second installment of Twilight from being a major box-office hit. Movie
websites are reporting record sales.

Teenagers are already lined up for midnight showings. And there is a good
possibility this film could gross in the $100 million range, putting it on
par with such juggernauts as Iron Man, Indiana Jones and Harry Potter. Not
bad for a $50 million movie about teenagers and vampires.

有不少電影被看好會大賣，結果卻變成失望的觀影經驗。
不過Summit娛樂公司與「新月」的劇組就相對幸運多了，因為年輕女孩們都知道
故事會怎麼發展，現在大概只有天然災難（我不是指2012）會嚴重影響暮光之城
第二集的票房，因為現在各大娛樂網站都已經報導本片的預售票銷售已經創下影史
新高。年輕人已經排隊等著去看午夜場，讓本片在第一週就有可能創下1億美金的票房，
與鋼鐵人、印第安那瓊斯與哈利波特共享這個成就，對於這部製作成本的5千萬美金的
YA吸血鬼電影來說絕對是個好成績

But this is one crowded weekend at the box office — Hollywood wasn’t
willing to let Summit have all the glory. Some crafty counter-programming
includes kid flick Planet 51 and the Sandra Bullock football drama The Blind
Side, which is appealing to male audiences. Read on for my predictions.

但本週電影院的競爭還是相當激烈，因為好萊塢的其他片商可不想讓Summit公司
獨享這個週末的所有光環，一些狡猾的逆向操作也將在本週上映，包括針對小孩的
動畫片「51號星球」，與珊卓布拉克主演，目標鎖定男性觀眾的足球劇情片「攻其
不備」

The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $105 million
Yes, it’s a ridiculously high number and let me preface it with saying that
even if New Moon grosses $85 million, it’s a hit. But the reason Twilight
was such a phenomenon was because teenage girls saw the movie 6 and 7 times
opening weekend. You don’t get that kind of repeat business at a free
buffet. These people are obsessed. The only thing New Moon has going against
it is its two-hour run time. And while Summit talked a good game about
expanding the audience of the film to lure in boys, all Taylor Lautner’s abs
have done is raise the screaming girl power in the theater. I’m doubtful
boys are going to show up to watch him turn into a werewolf, despite the
sequel’s improved special effects. For comparison, Twilight opened to $69.6
million on 3,419 theaters. The sequel is going to be in over 4,000 locations.

1.暮光之城：新月－1億5百萬美金
是的，這預測是很誇張的高，所以我必須先說：即使新月最後票房只有8千5百萬，
他仍然是一次成功的大熱賣！不過暮光去年之所以造成全美狂熱現象，是因為
有不少女生在首週末就看了6-7次，所以你不能把這種重複的觀影比率當作天上
掉下來的禮物，儘管他們的確夠著迷！新月能夠有超高票房的唯一理由，在於
他剛好兩小時的片長。

儘管這次Summit公司楊揚自喜的談論這回他們如何吸引更多男生入場，
但是所有泰勒羅特納（雅各）出現的鏡頭只是讓女生的尖叫分貝指數更為大聲而已，
我反而懷疑男孩們會願意買票看雅各變身狼人，雖然這回特效的確更為精緻。

順道一提：去年暮光1在不到3千5百家戲院的情況下開出了將近7千萬的票房，
而今年新月則至少會有4千家戲院上映

2012: $26 million
Roland Emmerich has a huge worldwide hit on his hands. And while he might not
be the most eloquent of filmmakers his ability to destroy is top-notch.
This film is full of massive spectacle best seen in the theater. So while
it’s going to get smacked around this weekend by New Moon, a 60% drop will
still give it a solid $26 million take for its second weekend.

2.2012－2千6百萬美金
羅蘭愛莫瑞奇的新片在全球都獲得了票房成功，也許老羅並不是敘事功力最好的導演，
但他在災難片的成就還是值得讓人尊敬。本片有許多值得在戲院觀賞的壯觀場面，
所以本週票房雖然會受到新月衝擊而大跌6成，但還是可以將收入保持在2千5百萬

The Blind Side: $19 million
Warner Bros. has been selling this “based on a true story” to football fans
across the country and surprisingly, it seems to be working. How high those
male moviegoers take the movie will be a wait-and-see game but The Blind Side
might just surprise.

3.攻其不備－1千9百萬美金
華納兄弟最近正在向全美的美式足球迷，密集宣傳這部根據真人實事改編的電影，
神奇的是，成果看起來還不錯。會有多少男性影迷買票入場固然是本週的觀戰重點
之一，不過攻片可望開出比想像中更好的票房

Disney’s A Christmas Carol: $18 million
With a 25% drop last weekend, A Christmas Carol positioned itself for a long
box-office run. Perhaps releasing the film so early wasn’t such a bad
decision after all. The Jim Carrey-starrer has received positive reviews and
will be the holiday movie of choice likely into December. Expect another
small drop-off this frame and a solid battle with The Blind Side for third
place.

4.聖誕夜怪談－1千8百萬美金
隨著上週只有25%的跌幅，聖片證明本片將會是一部長賣電影，
也證明本片這麼早就上映並不是個錯誤決定。這部由金凱瑞主演的動畫片
獲得了不錯的影評，而且還會是12月假期檔的其中一部應景電影，所以本片
在本週仍然能夠維持小跌幅，甚至與攻其不備爭奪季軍

Planet 51: $11 million
This is no Pixar film but with a cute concept (humans invade another planet)
and charming green creatures it’s certainly appealing to the under-8 set.
Still with so much out there, it will be a real feat if Planet 51 crosses the
$10 million mark.

5.51號星球－1千1百萬美金
本片不是皮克斯出品，但故事設定（人類入侵另一個星球）與片中的綠色怪物
都相當迷人可愛，勢必可以吸引8歲以下的小孩。不過在其他影片夾擊之下，
本片能開出破千萬的票房就算成功了！

Keep in mind, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire is set to expand
to 629 theaters. Even if the film’s per-screen average from last week drops
50%, which is more than likely considering the film’s expansion, it’s still
on track to earn over $10 million. That could mean that this indie film could
reach an astounding $15 million in three weeks of limited release.

也不要忘記「珍愛人生」將會增聽至629家戲院，雖然本片的平均戲院收入
將會下跌一半，但他仍然有望在本週吸取超過1千萬的票房，換句話說這部獨立製片
也即將在有限的戲院中達到三週1千5百萬的驚人票房紀錄


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