阿凡達將會勝過奪天書 - 電影院

http://tinyurl.com/ydf5ls3

Box-office preview: 'Avatar' likely to top 'Book of Eli' for the holiday frame

by Nicole Sperling
Categories: Box Office, Film, Movie Biz

Denzel Washington is probably one of a few actors that could hold a candle to
the spectacle that is Avatar. But even his post-apocalyptic journeyman film
Book of Eli isn’t likely to be crowned king on this Martin Luther King
holiday frame. Rather, Avatar will continue on its incredible journey,
likely to drop minimally for its fifth weekend in theaters.

It’s not helping Eli that reviews haven’t been overwhelmingly positive,
though I’m sure the younger male moviegoer still has the latest from
the Hughes Bros. on his “to-do” list this weekend, that is if he’s not
planning on seeing Avatar for a third time.

Read on for my four-day predictions.

丹佐華盛頓可能是少數能抵抗「阿凡達風暴」的A咖影星之一，
但他飾演末日之後旅人的新片「奪天書」，恐怕不會在金恩博士誕辰假期稱王了，
因為阿凡達將會持續進行他的破紀錄神奇旅程，繼續在第五週保持低跌幅

雖然不是太優秀的影評對奪片的氣勢沒有什麼幫助，
不過我倒是確定︰不少年輕男生會把休斯兄弟的新片列為他們的「本週必看電影」，
假如他們不打算第三次看阿凡達的話

以下是四天收入預測

1. Avatar: $45 million
The movie grossed $50 million last weekend, so who’s to say it can’t earn
another $45 million with a holiday to help it out? As of Wednesday,
the film’s domestic cume stands at $445 million. Tack on another $45 and
The Dark Knight’s domestic tally of $533 is in Avatar’s sight line.
Everyone I talk to sees the film and must go back for another round,
preferably in IMAX. So it will be no surprise given the holiday break that
moviegoers charge to the movies for another journey to Pandora.

1.阿凡達︰4千5百萬美金
本片在上週仍有5千萬的票房，所以誰說他不能在這個假期保持4千萬的週末收入呢？
截至週三為止，阿片的美國票房已經累積到4.45億，
看起來，連續五週4千萬與超越黑暗騎士的5億票房將會是他的下一個目標

跟我討論本片的朋友們，都說他們想再看一次本片（當然，是去看IMAX版本），
所以電影院假如又充滿想再經歷潘朵拉星球旅程的人潮，那一點也不意外


2. The Book of Eli: $30 million
This four-day frame should put Washington’s box office smack in the middle
between his last two movies: The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 at $23 million and
American Gangster which bowed to $43 million. Maybe it will open bigger but
with the noise of Avatar still pretty loud and Eli’s reviews not sparkling,
I doubt it. The opening will be solid which will portend good things for The
Hughes Brothers — Eli marks their first film since 2001’s From Hell.
Welcome back boys!

2.奪天書︰3千萬美金
阿丹哥新片的表現將會介於他兩部前作之間，
比亡命快捷高，但不會複製美國黑幫超過4千萬的成績
或許奪片的表現會更好，然而由於阿凡達的聲勢依舊強大，加上本片的影評
並不是特別好，所以這個預測算是合理了

不過奪片穩健的表現對於從9年前「開膛手」就沒有其他作品的休斯兄弟來說，
仍然是個好兆頭，歡迎回到好萊塢，兄弟們！


3. The Spy Next Door: $15 million
With the number of movies out there about men who are forced into the mother
hen role you would think Hollywood was run by women. No such luck. But it is
amazing how often this tired premise is wheeled out: The Pacifier, The Game
Plan, Daddy Day Care, to name a few. This time around Jackie Chan plays the
fall guy as a former CIA agent who must protect his girlfriend’s kids from a
nefarious Russian spy. Nonetheless, the film may just work. Kids are out of
school. The Squeakquel is on its fourth weekend. And if my six-year old
daughter is any indication, the trailer is working magic with the younger set.

3.鄰家特務︰1千5百萬美金
隨著越來越多性格男星被迫暫代母職的電影出爐，
觀眾可能會以為女性開始主導好萊塢了（可惜還不是）
但神奇的是，這些公式化劇情都很有效，如限制級奶爸、超級盃奶爸、奶爸安親班..等

這次成龍飾演一位退休的CIA幹員，他得保護女朋友的孩子不被邪惡的俄國間諜傷害
儘管很老梗，但這次還是會成功
因為現在小孩都不用上學、觀眾群一樣的鼠來寶2已經上映4週、
假如我6歲女兒是個暗示，那麼本片的廣告的確可以打動小孩們


4. The Lovely Bones: $12 million
First this movie was Oscar bait but when the critics didn’t come through
Paramount switched gears and focused its marketing campaign on teenage girls.
This weekend we’ll find out if it works. The book was a monumental
bestseller but watching a teenage girl murdered is a whole lot tougher than
reading it in a novel. In limited release, the Peter Jackson helmer has
grossed less than half a million domestically. Paramount’s expansion to over
2,500 theaters needs to work to get this fancy movie profitable.

4.蘇西的世界︰1千2百萬美金
本片原先的目標是奧斯卡，但由於影評們不買帳，派拉蒙只好將行銷焦點轉向國高中
的女生們，本週我們就會知道這種手法是否有效
原著是相當暢銷的經典，可是目睹女國中生被殺害比看小說的文字更艱難

彼得傑克森的新片目前在美國有限戲院的票房，連50萬美金都還不到
派拉蒙必須保證2千5百家的戲院擴增能夠成功，不然這部奇幻片就會面臨賠錢的命運

5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel: $10 million
An additional $10 million will put this movie on the brink of $200 million,
which is pretty much a given for this CG’d mess. And with dollars like that,
it’s got to be only a matter of days before Fox puts Alvin and the Chipmunks
III into production.

5.鼠來寶2︰1千萬美金
這1千萬將會讓鼠2距離2億美金只有一步之遙，對於這部動畫胡搞片來說可說是
天上掉下來的禮物，隨著本片票房的成功，要福斯通過鼠來寶3的企劃案應該只是
時間的問題了！


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